It would seem the world has gone mad, or at least the men with the money. After the first day of Twitter share trading the value of the company is sitting at around $31bn! This from a company who has yet to turn a profit. In fact they lost $69m in the first six months of 2013.

Twitter, always guarded about its stats, had to publish some real numbers ahead of the share sell off. Just how accurate are their figures?

Twitter claims:

  • 212+ million monthly activate users
  • 100m daily active
  • 500m tweets per day
  • 75% of users access Twitter on their mobile

These are big numbers.

Si Dawson, who once developed an app to clean your Twitter feed, decided to do some deep analysis of his own and the results are interesting. He has created a tool to select random Twitter accounts and analyse the data.

The facts below are based on 1.3m accounts so far processed -- 61% are deleted and 39% are still active.

Of those still active:

  • 22% have no tweets, no bio or fewer than five followers
  • 9% with no activity in the last month
  • 0.2% are auto-tweeting bots
  • 5% are monthly active
  • 2% are daily active

If we scale up the figures from the sample it shows 110m monthly active users and only 47m daily active. This is (very) roughly half what Twitter are claiming.

So who do you believe?

Twitter have all the real data and should present us with hard facts, but are they?

Si Dawson has analysed a very small percentage of the Twitter user base and one could argue he has missed the really active users.

Like any analysis the data can easily be skewed if you are not considering the same data or timelines.

I doubt we will ever truly know the facts.

If you are interested in how this develops, keep an eye on Simon Dawson's Twitter analysis page

site by DAJ